India Sugar Output May Lag Behind Estimates on Lack of Rain, Survey Shows

18 Nov 2010 Evaluate

Sugar production in India, the world’s second-largest, may be 8.7 percent less than predicted as rain, pests and disease reduce yields in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest cane-growing state. Output may be 23.27 million metric tons in 2010-2011, according to interviews with 810 farmers across six states by Geneva-based SGS SA. The Indian Sugar Mills Association and the Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation Ltd. forecast 25.5 million tons. The government expects 25 million, up from 18.9 million in 2009-2010.

An SGS survey last November predicted production of 17.68 million tons in 2009-2010, 11 percent more than forecast at that time by the country’s mills association. The mills group now estimates the 2009-2010 harvest at 18.9 million tons.

Cane production in India may climb 28 percent to 355.32 million tons in 2010-2011 from 277.75 million tons the previous year, helped by a 25 percent increase in area and a 2.5 percent improvement in yields, the latest SGS survey showed. The study by five teams between Oct. 16 and Nov. 1 covered six cane- growing states representing 93 percent of output, including Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the biggest growers. About 17 percent of farmers reported damage to cane from heavy rain this year, including 31 percent of those interviewed in Uttar Pradesh and 1 percent in Maharashtra, the survey showed. The rains increased infestations in Uttar Pradesh, with 16 percent of growers reporting severe attacks, up from 3 percent last year, the survey showed. In Maharashtra, insect and disease outbreaks were less than last year. A smaller crop may hinder government plans to lift restrictions on sugar exports, reducing global supply at a time of sustained demand from importers.