Easing at five years low, India's main inflation gauge, based on monthly WPI, stood at 3.74% for the month of August as compared to 5.19% in the previous month and 6.99% during the corresponding month of the previous year. The figure was way below the street expectations, which were expecting headline inflation to be in the range of 4%-4.15% for the month under review. However, June inflation figures were revised upwards to 5.66% from 5.43% earlier. Meanwhile, build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 3.00% compared to a build up rate of 5.23% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The five-year low inflation data was mainly on account of moderation in fuel costs. Fuel & Power index, which occupies 14.91% weight in the overall index, declined by 0.3% to 214.00 (provisional) from 214.7 (provisional) for the previous month due to lower price of petrol and furnace oil (3% each) and bitumen (2%). However, the price of high speed diesel (1%) moved up. Besides, food inflation in August hit a lowest level since January 2012. It eased to 5.15 percent versus 8.43 percent on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. Meanwhile, the index of Manufactured Products, which occupies the majority 64.97% weight in WPI index, rose by 0.3% to 155.8 (provisional) from 155.4 (provisional) in July.
Additionally, Primary Articles index, which occupies 20.12% weight in the overall headline index, also rose by 2.00% to 261.7 (provisional) from 256.6 (provisional) for the previous month. Out of the index, 'Food Articles’ group rose by 2.6% to 265.4 (provisional) from 258.6 in the previous month, while index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group rose by 0.3% to 218.7 (provisional) from 218.1 for the previous month.
The fall in wholesale inflation is likely to build pressure on RBI for cut in the repo rate, or the rate at which the Reserve Bank of India lends to banks. Adding to this, the low 0.5% growth in July in industrial production, and a marginal easing of retail inflation rate of 7.8% in August would also be considered.