In an extremely encouraging development, India’s consumer price inflation eased at an all time low level since the launch of the new series of Consumer Price Index in 2012, at 6.46% in September as compared to 7.80% in August, helped by the lower prices of food and fuel. The numbers were way lower than street expectation of a figure above ‘7%’. Also, the August CPI inflation has been revised to 7.73% from 7.80%. The General Indices for rural, urban and combined stood at 147.0, 142.5 and 145.0, respectively. The corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas for the month under review stood at 6.68% and 6.34% as compared to 8.27% and 7.04% respectively in the previous month.
Retail Inflation for the month under review declined mainly on account of food inflation, which eased down to 7.67% against 9.42% month-on-month. The vegetable price inflation lowered significantly to 8.59% versus 15.15% from August. The newly introduced Consumer Food Price Indices (CFPI) for rural, urban and combined stood at 152.0, 152.3 and 152.1 respectively for August 2014.
Inflation of food and beverages (combined), with 59.31% weigtage of the index, receded to 7.56% as against 9.16% in August. Besides, Fuel and light prices, with 10.42% weightage in the index ebbed to 3.45% in September on a yearly basis, against 4.15% in August, additionally, inflation in clothing, bedding and footwear eased to 7.59% in month under review against 8.53% in August.
This reading works well towards RBI’s target of bringing the inflation lower to 8% mark by January 2015 and to 6% by January 2016. However, rates cuts are unlikely for the near term by RBI, which gauges both measures of inflation when deciding on monetary policy. This also looks unlikely since RBI, in its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy stance and rationale, expressed upside risk to its target to bring consumer inflation down to 6% by January 2016, which continued to warrant policy preparedness to contain pressures if the risks materialized.