CPI inflation fell to record low of 3.78% in July

13 Aug 2015 Evaluate

Strengthening the case of another rate cut, Retail inflation fell to a record low of 3.78 percent in July. It was the slowest pace on record, helped by lower food prices of certain items including of vegetables, fruits and cereals. As per the data of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Consumer Price Index (CPI) Numbers on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of July 2015 stood at 4.44 percent, 2.94 percent and 3.78 percent respectively.

The food inflation was down to 2.89 per cent in July from 5.73 per cent in June, inflation in items within the food basket such as pulses remained steady at 22 per cent while prices of items like fruits and vegetables, eggs and milk products have softened. The latest drop in food inflation was aided by a conducive base effect, as CPI food inflation was as high as 8.85% in July last year.

Core consumer inflation, a measure of demand, also eased from near 5 per cent in June to around 4.5 per cent. Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for all India Rural, Urban and Combined for July 2015 stood at 2.83 percent, 1.01 percent and 2.15 percent respectively. The General Indices (Provisional) for the month of July 2015 for Rural, Urban and Combined are 124.8, 122.4 and 123.7 respectively.  The CFPI for Rural, Urban and Combined for the same month were 127.3, 129.6 and 128.1 respectively.

The CPI number is significantly lower than expected and has halved over the 19 months from double digit levels, with food one of the significant factor on the downside. This number is significantly below RBI's projection for this period, which has targeted to keep retail inflation at less than 6 per cent. The apex bank is scheduled to review its monetary policy next on September 29 but there are chance that the central bank could cut interest rates before that.

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