CPI reverses easing trend; surges to 4.41% in September

Reversing a two-month easing streak the retail or the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the month of September rose at 4.41 percent, compared to 3.74 percent in August and 6.46 percent in September last year, mainly due to costlier food items in general and beverages and pulses in particular. Also, the August CPI inflation has been revised higher to 3.74 % from 3.66%.

As per the data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Consumer Price Index numbers on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of September 2015 stood at 5.05 percent, 3.61 percent and 4.41 percent respectively compared to 5.87 percent, 5.30 percent and 5.63 percent respectively in Septmber 2014. On the same time Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for all India Rural, Urban and Combined for the month of August 2015 stood at 4.05 percent, 3.45 percent and 3.88 percent respectively.

The General Indices (Provisional) for the month of September 2015 for Rural, Urban and Combined stood at 127.0, 123.5 and 125.4 respectively.  The CFPI for Rural, Urban and Combined for the same month were 131.0, 131.8 and 131.3 respectively.

The sharp rise in the inflation numbers were due to rise in food and beverages, which almost doubled from a month earlier to 4.29 percent in September. Food inflation for the month of September rose to 3.88 percent versus 2.20 percent in August, on the back of poor rainfall. Inflation in cereals and products was also higher and stood at 1.38 percent versus 1.22 percent in August. Retail inflation in pulses and products category rose to 29.76 percent in September .The price rise in spices category was higher at 9.27 percent and for non-alcoholic beverages at 4.32 percent.

Meanwhile, the item head of paan, tobacco and intoxicants rose 9.35per cent, fuel and lighting rose 5.4 per cent, and clothing items rose nearly 6 per cent. Among other protein rich items such as meat and fish, the rate of price rise has slowed to 5.59 percent. While, milk and its products were also cheaper during the month with inflation rate at 5.05 percent, eggs also turned cheaper with 1.19 percent price rise. Inflation in sugar and confectionery category remained in negative zone at (-) 12.91 percent.

The September data has come just after the Reserve Bank of India had cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points in its latest policy review, to boost economic activity. RBI chief Raghuram Rajan had predicted that retail prices would see a rise in the September-December quarter but reiterated that he did not expect CPI inflation to rise above six per cent in January. RBI estimates retail inflation to be at 5.8 percent in January 2016.