Indian economy's quarterly growth rate eases to 7.8% yet maintains a robust pace

31 May 2011 Evaluate

Indian economic expansion slowed in the January-March quarter mainly on account of weak performance by mining and quarrying, manufacturing, contraction and trade, hotels, transport, and communication. However, for the fiscal year ending March 2011, the gross domestic product (GDP) maintained a robust growth rate, reassuring policy makers that the economy is in good shape despite sustained monetary tightening over the past year.

According to the data released by Central Statistics Office (CSO), India’s GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for the full fiscal year ended March 31 showed a growth rate of 8.5% over the 8% GDP growth for the year 2009-10. While the quarterly estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter showed a growth rate of 7.8% against 9.4% year-on-year and 8.3% quarter on quarter.

On sectoral basis, farm sector recorded smart growth of 7.5% against 1.1% registered in the same period a year ago, boosted by a good winter harvest, but manufacturing growth figures disappointed as they came in at 5.5% in the three months through March from a year earlier, compared with a 6% gain in the previous quarter and 15.2% year-on-year. The manufacturing activity has been slowed by nine interest rate hikes in the past 15 months to tackle the rampant inflation.

Nonetheless, the GDP figures reflect the resilience of Asia's third-largest economy which has expanded at a swift pace despite the odds that emerged not only from the domestic macro-economic front but also from the global front including turbulences like civil upheaval in the Middle East and North African nations and the Euro-zone debt crisis. Continued domestic demand on the back of rising income levels helped the Indian economy to clock the robust growth, second only to neighboring China among major economies. But the steady growth is expected to give the Reserve Bank of India more confidence to continue raising interest rates to rein in uncomfortably high inflation.

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