Benchmarks likely to get cautious start on Monday

Indian markets ended lower on Friday as weak China data revived fears of a global slowdown. Today, start of new week is likely to be cautious amid spike in Crude Oil prices and Israel-Palestine war. Israeli troops prepare for a ground assault on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. Investors will be eyeing wholesale price inflation data for September, and Q2-FY24 earnings of India Inc for more directional cues. Traders will be concerned as India's merchandise exports saw a fall of 2.6 percent year on year, contracting to $34.47 billion in September. The fall was also significantly reflected in imports, which contracted by 15 percent to $53.84 billion in September 2023 against September 2022. Traders may take note of chief economic advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran’s statement that private investment is happening in India, and inflation is not a concern, but crude oil prices and tightening global monetary conditions pose a risk. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. According to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) purchased shares worth net Rs 317.01 crore on October 13, 2023. Some support may come as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the overall macroeconomic environment in India is ‘pretty sound’, it is fiscally disciplined and the central bank moved fast to bring inflation under control. Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, IMF said ‘They have been fiscally disciplined. They expect the fiscal at 5.9 per cent this year. The central bank has moved fast to bring inflation under control. The most recent number was 5 per cent (for September). So, inflation is coming down. So, overall, the macroeconomic environment is pretty sound in India’. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is likely to undertake a new round of market consultations before allowing the National Stock Exchange (NSE) to extend its trading hours. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus with report that the government has given a final call to all legal entities engaged in sugar trade to declare their stocks on a food ministry website by October 17, and warned that strict action will be taken against those for violation. 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Friday as Investors monitored news from the Middle East. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Monday as investors look ahead China's third-quarter gross domestic product numbers later in the week.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended on a weak note on Friday as Banks, information technology (IT) and TECK stocks fell sharply during the session. Markets made a gap down opening and traded lower for the most part of the session, as negative global cues and concerns over the quarterly financial performance of IT companies hit investor sentiments. Some concern also came as data available with NSE showed foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Thursday as they sold shares worth Rs 1,862.57 crore. Sentiments remained weak after the Labor Department released a separate report showing consumer price growth in the U.S. slightly exceeded estimates in the month of September. The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.4 percent in September. Street had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent. However, key gauges staged some recovery in the second half of the session, on the back of positive macro-economic data. India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation (retail inflation) eased to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent year-on-year in September from 6.83 per cent in August, with moderation in vegetables and fuel prices. Besides, with good performance by the manufacturing, mining and power sectors, India's industrial production growth rose to a 14-month high of 10.3 per cent in August. Some support also came as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest survey report has showed that exports of software services by Indian companies (excluding their sales through overseas commercial presence) increased by 18.4 per cent during 2022-23 to $185.5 billion. It also noted that computer services accounted for over two-thirds of total software services exports during the year; BPO services remained the main component of ITES exports. However, markets failed to erase all the losses and ended marginally in red. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 125.65 points or 0.19% to 66,282.74 and the CNX Nifty was down by 42.95 points or 0.22% to 19,751.05.