GDP growth for FY24 could be within striking distance of 8%: SBI report

02 Mar 2024 Evaluate

A day after India posted an 8.4 per cent growth in the December quarter, and revised upwards the estimates for the preceding two quarters, the State Bank of India (SBI) in its research report ‘Ecowrap’ said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the current financial year (FY24) could be within striking distance of 8 per cent. It said ‘The third quarter GDP numbers jolted the psyche and cognitive framework of most in markets, while sweeping some by a pleasant surprise. Clearly, right policy prisms and perspectives can trump irrational expectations bordering fault lines’.

It noted that defying all estimates, the economy grew 8.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2023-24 after exhibiting more than 8 per cent growth in the preceding two quarters. The buoyancy in indirect tax mop-up (32 per cent year-on-year growth), gap between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth widened. As per the report, ‘For fiscal 2023-24 GDP growth is expected to increase 7.6 per cent and GVA growth by 6.9 per cent… we estimate fourth quarter GDP growth at 5.9 per cent, which we believe is an understatement. Thus it is most likely that FY24 GDP growth could be within striking distance of 8 per cent’.

The SBI report further said with the government’s efforts to ensure quality of life for all citizens and stopping leakage of benefits through direct benefit transfer, for the first time the per capita GDP at current prices crossed Rs 2 lakh mark in 2023-24. In constant prices, too, per capita GDP has increased to Rs 1.24 lakh in the current fiscal.