India can sustain 8% annual GDP growth: RBI bulletin article

20 Mar 2024 Evaluate

An article on the ‘State of Economy’ published in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) March Bulletin showed that India can sustain 8 per cent annual GDP growth and the conducive macroeconomic configuration may become a launching pad for a step-up in the country’s growth trajectory. Over the period 2021-24, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged above 8 per cent. An article authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra said the global economy is losing steam, with growth slowing in some of the most resilient economies and high frequency indicators, pointing to further levelling in the period ahead. 

In India, real GDP growth was at a six-quarter high in the October-December period of 2023-24, powered by strong momentum, robust indirect taxes, and lower subsidies. The high visibility of structural demand and healthier corporate and bank balance sheets will likely be the galvanising forces for growth going forward. It said ‘The world is confronted with large shifts in structure and sentiments, which are either underway or impending’. The article noted that the outlook is shrouded with layers of uncertainty, exacerbated by geopolitical and extreme weather risks as well as fragmenting forces. By contrast, it said the Indian economy is experiencing a conducive macroeconomic configuration that can be its launching pad for a step-up in its growth trajectory.

According to the article, balance sheets in the financial sector are sound and healthy, providing the wherewithal for intermediating the productive credit needs of a resurgent economy. It said ‘Financial markets are reflecting these favourable formations. Capital inflows have resumed strongly as investor interest floods back into India’. It further said technology is offering new growth opportunities to seize by becoming more competitive and efficient. It added ‘The time has come to build world class infrastructure, strong manufacturing bases, a high-quality labour force and global leadership in services to convert these favourable factors into opportunities and strengths over the next few decades’. It also noted that the demand outlook for premium consumer businesses is robust and the growth rhythm is expected to persist into the medium-term.

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