Markets likely to get negative start ahead of CPI, IIP data

Indian markets ended Wednesday’s session at new highs, buoyed by gains in index heavyweights Reliance Industries and ITC, and optimism over earnings. Domestic indices remained closed on Thursday on account of Id-Ul-Fitr. Today, markets are likely to get negative start amid mixed cues from global peers as hopes of a rate cut in the US faded. All eyes will be on the macro-economic data -- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) -- to be out later in the day for more directional cues. Also, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country's largest IT services exporter, is all set to report its financial results for the January-March period, the fourth and final quarter of the financial year 2023-24, on April 12, kicking off a new results season for India Inc. however, foreign inflows likely to aid sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 2,778.17 crore on April 10, provisional data from the NSE showed. Some support will come as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.7 per cent earlier, saying the robust growth will be driven by public and private sector investment demand and gradual improvement in consumer demand. Besides, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal said India's economic growth performance is 'good' and efforts now will be needed to sustain it, as there are concerns about the external environment, which are not quite settled. Sanyal noted that if the weather condition and the monsoon turns out to be favorable, then food prices will hopefully get tempered as well. There will be some buzz in the sugar industry stocks as food ministry said sugar mills have paid Rs 78,000 crore to sugarcane farmers in the first six months (October-March) of the current marketing season. There will be some reaction in healthcare industry stocks with a private report that after the pandemic, there has been a generational and sentimental shift in how Indian consumers view health and wellness. In its recent analysis of emerging areas of focus for health and wellness sentiments, the report highlighted that areas like food as medicine, anti-ageing technology and products, personalised happiness medicine, and hormone-boosting lifestyle solutions are going to be in focus in the coming years. Edible oil industry stocks will be in limelight as the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said India's palm oil imports fell about 2.5% in March from the previous month to stand at 485,354 metric tons. Meanwhile, Bharti Hexacom is likely to debut on the bourses today.

The US markets ended mostly higher on Thursday with tech-related momentum stocks leading the charge, as fresh economic data rekindled hopes that inflation remains in a cooling trend. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday as investors evaluated economic data from Singapore and South Korea and also awaited China's trade numbers.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks edged higher and gained nearly half a percent on Wednesday driven by gains in Oil & Gas, Energy and Metal stocks. After the initial gap-up move, the markets remained range bound for most of the session, as traders took support with a private report that India is expected to see a normal monsoon in 2024, promising some respite after a prediction of more-than-normal heat wave days in the summer preceding the June-September rainy season. Monsoon rains are expected to be 102% of the long-period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month period. Traders took a note of the US National Security Advisor’s statement that the partnership between India and the United States has reached a new height with collaboration on technology and other fields. Markets added gains in late afternoon deals, amid ease in crude oil prices as talks for a ceasefire in Gaza continued. Traders overlooked report by credit rating agency ICRA in which it has revised the banking sector outlook to Stable from Positive on the expectation of moderation in credit growth and profitability metrics, though the same would continue to remain healthy. It said while the compression in the interest margins over the last 18 months has been driven by rising deposit cost, the expectations of a rate cut in H2 FY2025 could lead to margin pressure, driven by a likely downward repricing of advances. Traders also paid no heed towards report that the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that in the April-June period, various parts of the country could record 10-20 heat wave days compared to the normal four to eight days. Nearly half of India’s farmland, which has no irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybeans. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 354.45 points or 0.47% to 75,038.15 and the CNX Nifty was up by 111.05 points or 0.49% points to 22,753.80.