Markets likely to get cautious start amid weak global cues; RBI policy outcome eyed

Indian markets rebounded sharply to hit record fresh highs on Thursday, propped up by buying in IT, consumer durables and financial stocks. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start amid weak global cues. Investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. In the first policy review for this fiscal, the MPC is likely to predict a status quo in key rates. There are expectations that the central bank is likely to keep its repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent, continuing its stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. Also, market participants are anticipating that GDP estimate may be revised up. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 1,136.47 crore on April 4, provisional data from the NSE showed. Traders will be concerned with ICRA’s report that growth of the Indian Securitisation market is set to slow this fiscal year keeping the trend witnessed in the last quarter of fiscal 2024 as non-banking finance companies and banks get into co-lending reducing the demand for such papers. However, some support may come later in the day as the United Nations said India has become the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a bright spot for the Asia-Pacific in 2023 amid strong household consumption and public investment in infrastructure. Besides, the Reserve Bank has deferred implementation of its directions on exchange traded currency derivatives (ETCD) linked to rupee by a month to May 3 in view of feedbacks received from stakeholders. Meanwhile, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has facilitated taxpayers to file their Income Tax Returns (ITRs) for the Assessment Year 2024-25 (relevant to Financial Year 2023-24) from April 1, 2024 onwards. This is for the first time in recent times, that the Income Tax department has enabled taxpayers to file their Returns on the first day of the new financial year. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as the industry body SEA said mustard seed production is likely to touch an all-time high of 12 million tonnes in the 2023-24 season in view of a record sown area of 10 million hectares. Mustard seed is an important oilseed crop grown during the rabi (winter) season during September-October and harvested in February-March. Moreover, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) is awaiting approval from capital markets regulator Sebi to kickstart the initial public offering process.

The US markets ended significantly lower on Thursday as Fed officials cautioned on expectations of early rate cuts, and stressed that inflation needs to be closely watched. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Friday mirroring moves on Wall Street after comments from US Federal Reserve officials fueled worries that the central bank could hold off on rate cuts.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended higher in the volatile session on Thursday, propped up by buying in IT, consumer durables and Utilities stocks amid expectations of a robust corporate performance. Markets made a positive start as traders took support with CBIC chairman Sanjay Kumar Agarwal’s statement that the indirect tax collection for FY24 has exceeded the revised estimates (RE) of Rs 14.84 trillion by “a handsome margin”, helped by a record GST mop-up. Tax collection is a reflection of economic activity. However, markets soon erased gains and witnessed selling pressure during the first half of the trading session as traders turned cautious with provisional data from the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 2,213.56 crore on April 3, 2024. Some cautiousness came in markets as a private report said that merchandise exports from India for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) may show a contraction of around 1-1.5 per cent after two consecutive years of growth, even as March is likely to witness robust double-digit growth. However, markets rebounded sharply during the second half to settle higher, as traders took encouragement with data showing that India's services activity continued to expand in March, with the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the sector coming in at 61.2. Rising from 60.6 in February to 61.2 in March, the seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index pointed to one of the strongest growth rates seen in over 13-and-a-half years. The upturn was largely attributed to healthy demand conditions, efficiency gains and positive sales developments. Some solace also came as Sebi Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch said that Indian capital markets are commanding high valuations as foreign investors are bullish about the country's economic growth on the back of strong domestic macroeconomic data. Investors also eyed the RBI meeting outcome slated for Friday. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 350.81 points or 0.47% to 74,227.63 and the CNX Nifty was up by 80.00 points or 0.36% to 22,514.65.