Domestic indices likely to extend previous session’s losses with gap-down opening

Indian markets lost considerable ground on Monday as flaring tensions in the Middle East, where latest reports suggest that Israeli army has proposed likely retaliatory measures to its government against Iran, dampened sentiment. Today, domestic indices are likely to extend their previous session’s losses with gap-down opening, tracking losses in global peers amid concerns over rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel and a spike in US bond yields. The US 10-year bond yield jumped to 4.6 per cent. Trading activity likely to remain cautious, ahead of the trading holiday on Wednesday on account of Ram Navami. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 3,268 crore on April 15, provisional data from the NSE showed. Traders will be concerned with report that snapping the trend of growth in three consecutive months, goods exports in March year-on-year (Y-o-Y) contracted a moderate 0.67 per cent to $41.68 billion due to falling commodity prices and persistent geopolitical challenges. The data released by the commerce department showed that with March being the seventh month when exports contracted in 2023-24, on a cumulative basis outbound shipments saw a 3.11 per cent decline at $437.06 billion. However, some support may come later in the day as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September. IMD predicts 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. LPA of monsoon rainfall (1971-2020) is 87 cm. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus with report that the government ruled out possibility of allowing sugar exports in the current 2023-24 season ending October, the industry's persistent demand notwithstanding. Currently, there are curbs on export of sugar for an indefinite period. There will be some reaction in real estate industry stocks with a private report that institutional investment in real estate declined by 55% during Q1 2024 to $552 million. This decrease has been attributed to the cautious stance of foreign investors, influenced by global macroeconomic uncertainties. Oil & gas industry stocks will be in limelight as the Indian government has announced an increase in windfall tax on petroleum crude from 6,800 rupees to 9,600 rupees per metric ton. This change will come into effect on April 16, as part of the government's fortnightly revision of the tax. However, diesel and aviation turbine fuel will remain unaffected and will continue to have a zero windfall tax rate. On the earning front, Crisil, Den Networks, Integra Essential, Lotus Choclate and SG Mart to announce Q4 earnings today. Angel One, Hathway Cable, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, Just Dial and Tata Communications to report results on Wednesday.

The US markets ended lower on Monday as an early lift from a strong retail sales report succumbed to a jump in Treasury yields and concerns about rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. Asian markets are trading in red on Tuesday as the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s air assault over the weekend. China’s first-quarter gross domestic product numbers will be in focus.

Back home, bears held a tight grip over the Dalal Street, with both Sensex and Nifty ending lower by over a percent, as risk sentiment took a hit after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel stoked fears of a wider regional conflict and kept traders on edge. After a negative start, markets remained weak for the whole day, as traders were concerned with a private report that exporters are in a wait-and-watch mode as they expect air freight volume to Europe to rise 10-15%, logistics and insurance costs to rise and engineering exports demand to Europe to get impacted following Iran's attack on Israel. In last hours of the trade, indices extended losses, as sentiments remained downbeat after the provisional data released by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry showed that India’s wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation accelerated to 0.53 per cent in March on an annual basis, as against 0.20 per cent in February. WPI inflation stood at 1.34 per cent in March 2023. Investors overlooked positive macro-economic data. India's retail inflation eased to 4.85 per cent on an annual basis in March as against 5.09 per cent in the previous month, while the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in India rose 5.7 per cent in February as against 3.8 per cent in January. On the sectoral front, auto industry stocks remained in watch, as the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has said that passenger vehicle (PV) wholesales in India touched a record high of 42,18,746 units in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), registering a year-on-year growth of 8.4 per cent, as compared to overall passenger vehicle dispatches of 38,90,114 units in fiscal year 2022-23. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 845.12 points or 1.14% to 73,399.78 and the CNX Nifty was down by 246.90 points or 1.10% points to 22,272.50.