Domestic indices likely to get optimistic start tracking gains across global markets

Indian markets ended a range-bound session with a positive bias on Thursday, a day after the US Federal Reserve kept key interest rates unchanged at 5.5 per cent. Today, domestic indices are likely to get optimistic start tracking gains across global markets. Sentiments will get boost as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its growth forecast for India by 40 basis points to 6.6 per cent for 2024-25, holding that buoyant public investment and improved business confidence are expected to propel India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Some support will also come with a private report that the stock market reflects India’s ascendance as an economic superpower with premium valuations, but challenges remain for inclusive growth. As per the report, over the past decade, India has steadily climbed the ranks of global economies, transitioning from the tenth to the fifth largest economy in the world. Meanwhile, economic think tank GTRI in its report said India's imports of electronics, telecom, and electrical products soared to $89.8 billion in 2023-24 and over half of these imports are sourced from China and Hong Kong. However, traders may be concerned amid foreign fund outflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Rs 964.47 crore shares on May 2, provisional data from the NSE showed. Some cautiousness may come as Reserve Bank data showed that India's services exports declined 1.3 per cent in March to $30 billion while imports fell by 2.1 per cent to $16.61 billion. As per RBI's data on India's international trade in services, the trade surplus during March 2024 was $13.4 billion. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as India's domestic coal production rose 7.41 per cent to 78.69 million tonnes (MT) in April. The country's coal output was 73.26 MT in the corresponding month of the previous fiscal year. On the earnings front, Titan, Britannia Industries, Adani Green Energy, Godrej Properties, MRF, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HFCL are among other to announce their Q4FY24 results later in the day.

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as investors looked ahead to more earnings as well as the nonfarm payrolls report set to be released on Friday. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday following Wall Street gains ahead of key U.S. employment data. Stock markets in Japan and mainland China were shut for public holidays.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks managed to end higher in the volatile session on Thursday led by gains in Utilities, PSU and Power stocks. Additionally, a decline in oil prices and robust domestic auto sales figures supported sentiments. After opening in red, frontline indices soon reversed losses to trade higher and consolidated during the day as traders took support with data showing that India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in gross terms hit a record high in April 2024 at Rs 2.1 lakh crore. The government had collected Rs 1.87 lakh crore as GST in the same period last year. Traders took a note of a private survey showing that growth in India's manufacturing sector slowed marginally in April but remained robust thanks to strong demand, prompting firms to ramp up purchases of raw materials at a near-record pace. The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, dipped to 58.8 in April from a 16-year high of 59.1 in March, below a preliminary estimate for no change from the previous month. Despite softening, it was above its long-run average and in expansionary territory for a 34th month. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction. Sentiments remained positive in afternoon deals, taking support from data showing that the output of eight core industries posted a growth of 5.2 percent in March 2024 as the production of cement, coal, electricity, natural gas, steel and crude oil recorded positive growth in the same month. The output of core sectors had grown by 7.1 per cent in February 2024 and 4.1 per cent in January 2024, while it stood 4.2 per cent in March 2023. However, markets trimmed some gains in final hour of trade as traders got anxious as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in Indian stocks in April, after remaining net buyers in the two preceding months, as the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East coupled with strength US bond yield likely pushed investors to take money off their portfolios. Some concern also came with report that the Reserve Bank of India will likely delay cutting interest rates until the final quarter of the year, as inflation risks rise and the US Federal Reserve keeps rates on hold for longer. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 128.33 points or 0.17% to 74,611.11 and the CNX Nifty was up by 43.35 points or 0.19% points to 22,648.20.