Sovereign rating upgrade for India possible in next 24 months if fiscal deficit falls to 4% of GDP: S&P

04 Jul 2024 Evaluate

The S&P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, has expressed optimism over the country’s rating upgrade and said that for India a sovereign rating upgrade is possible in the next 24 months if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down fiscal deficit to 4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). He said the trigger for upgrade would be general government (Centre + states) deficit falling below 7 per cent of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government.

The central government estimates to bring down fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal, from 5.63 per cent in 2023-24. As per the fiscal consolidation roadmap, the deficit -- the difference between government expenditure and revenue -- will be brought down to 4.5 per cent by 2025-26. The rating agency had in May upgraded outlook for India to positive, from stable, while retaining the rating at 'BBB-'.

Phua further said the Indian economy has clocked an average of 8 per cent growth in the last three years, driven by domestic consumption and infrastructure investment that has made real difference on the ground. He added ‘We see the medium-term growth potential for India at 7 per cent’. He also said if the infrastructure bottlenecks are removed, that will lead to 8 per cent growth potential without the risk of overheating. S&P estimates India's economic growth at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal, lower than 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal.

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