India’s economic outlook for Q2FY25 appears promising with industry expecting greater export orders: CII survey

A survey by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) stated that India’s economic outlook for the second quarter (Q2) of the financial year (FY) 2025 appears promising, with the industry expecting greater export orders and enhanced employment sentiment in the country. In the Q2 of financial year 2025, the industry expects an increase in export orders due to the slight improvement in the external scenario. About 31 per cent of the respondents expressed their optimism about the enhanced export orders.

On the imports side, a large proportion of respondents expect status-quo in their orders in Q2, while 21 per cent of respondents expect them to increase in the said quarter. The survey also highlights the employment scenario and business prospects in Indian business entities. It noted that industries have responded positively to increased employment opportunities across various sectors, with nearly half of the survey respondents expecting an improvement in hiring during the second quarter.

It added ‘With the stability in the overall economy, employment opportunities seem to be emerging across sectors. Almost half of the respondents (49 per cent) anticipate an improvement in the employment situation within their companies during the second quarter of the current fiscal year’. The survey respondents cited factors such as improvement in consumption, especially rural demand; steady progress in monsoon; continued emphasis on reforms; and fresh sightings in private investment as the key reasons that will drive growth in the current financial year.

As per the report, while 41 per cent of the respondents expect the employment situation to remain unchanged during the same period. However, a few niggling business concerns have also been highlighted by the respondents in the survey, with protracted geopolitical tensions, spike in global commodity prices, and slowing external demand being the top three ones. As observed in the survey, about 24 per cent of businesses say that protracted geopolitical tensions are their top business concern for the next six months.

Meanwhile, about 18 per cent of businesses think that the spike in global commodity prices is also a significant worry for them. Alongside 17 per cent who expressed concerns about slowing external demand during this period, the survey observes. Around 16 per cent of businesses also cited skewed consumption demand as the big risk to their business confidence in the next six months. The 128th round of CII Business Outlook Survey was conducted in the month of September 2024, covering more than 200 firms of varying sizes and across all industry sectors and regions.