Post Session: Quick Review

Indian benchmarks extended their losing streak for sixth straight session and ended with losses of over half a percent as investors-maintained risk-averse approach ahead of RBI Interest Rate Decision slated to be announced on October 09. Besides, escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened the investors sentiments. As for broader indices, the BSE Mid cap index ended with cut of around two percent, while small cap index concluded with cut of over three percent.

Markets made positive start as traders took some support after Reserve Bank said India’s forex reserves jumped by $12.588 billion to a new all-time high of $704.885 billion for the week ended September 27. However, indices failed to hold their initial gains and turned negative. Traders overlooked the Ministry of Labour & Employment’s statement that India has witnessed significant employment growth of nearly 36%, adding around 170 million jobs during 2016-17 and 2022-23. With a robust democracy, dynamic economy, and a culture that celebrates unity in diversity, India’s journey toward becoming a global powerhouse continues to inspire the world. In afternoon session, markets continued their downward trade as investors preferred to sell their riskier assets. Traders ignored Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s statement that India will witness the steepest rise in living standards of the common man on the back of the government’s initiatives and the efforts towards doubling per capita income in few years. She stressed that inequality in India has declined with the Gini coefficient, a statistical tool to measure inequity, showing improvement in urban as well as rural areas. Indices remained lower till the end of the session.

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in red after official data showed Germany's factory orders declined at a faster-than-expected pace in August. According to preliminary figures from data Destatis, incoming new orders contracted 5.8 percent on a monthly basis in August, reversing July's upwardly revised 3.9 percent expansion. Orders were expected to fall 1.9 percent. Asian markets ended in green after robust U.S. jobs data signaled economic resilience but prompted trades to pare bets on aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Back home, Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that the escalation in the US-China trade war is expected to help India increase its exports and attract investments from American companies.

The BSE Sensex ended at 81,050.00, down by 638.45 points or 0.78% after trading in a range of 80,726.06 and 82,137.77. There were 7 stocks advancing against 23 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index declined 1.85%, while Small cap index was down by 3.27%. (Provisional)

The only gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were TECK up by 0.46% and IT was up by 0.32%, while Utilities down by 3.63%, PSU down by 3.41%, Power down by 3.14%, Basic Materials down by 2.54% and Telecom was down by 2.49% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.46%, ITC up by 1.40%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.31%, Infosys up by 0.80% and Bajaj Finance up by 0.74%. On the flip side, Adani Ports down by 4.08%, NTPC down by 3.50%, SBI down by 2.96%, Power Grid down by 2.92% and Indusind Bank down by 2.43% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, a survey by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) stated that India’s economic outlook for the second quarter (Q2) of the financial year (FY) 2025 appears promising, with the industry expecting greater export orders and enhanced employment sentiment in the country. In the Q2 of financial year 2025, the industry expects an increase in export orders due to the slight improvement in the external scenario. About 31 per cent of the respondents expressed their optimism about the enhanced export orders.

On the imports side, a large proportion of respondents expect status-quo in their orders in Q2, while 21 per cent of respondents expect them to increase in the said quarter. The survey also highlights the employment scenario and business prospects in Indian business entities. It noted that industries have responded positively to increased employment opportunities across various sectors, with nearly half of the survey respondents expecting an improvement in hiring during the second quarter.

It added ‘With the stability in the overall economy, employment opportunities seem to be emerging across sectors. Almost half of the respondents (49 per cent) anticipate an improvement in the employment situation within their companies during the second quarter of the current fiscal year’. The survey respondents cited factors such as improvement in consumption, especially rural demand; steady progress in monsoon; continued emphasis on reforms; and fresh sightings in private investment as the key reasons that will drive growth in the current financial year.

As per the report, while 41 per cent of the respondents expect the employment situation to remain unchanged during the same period. However, a few niggling business concerns have also been highlighted by the respondents in the survey, with protracted geopolitical tensions, spike in global commodity prices, and slowing external demand being the top three ones. As observed in the survey, about 24 per cent of businesses say that protracted geopolitical tensions are their top business concern for the next six months.

Meanwhile, about 18 per cent of businesses think that the spike in global commodity prices is also a significant worry for them. Alongside 17 per cent who expressed concerns about slowing external demand during this period, the survey observes. Around 16 per cent of businesses also cited skewed consumption demand as the big risk to their business confidence in the next six months. The 128th round of CII Business Outlook Survey was conducted in the month of September 2024, covering more than 200 firms of varying sizes and across all industry sectors and regions.

The CNX Nifty ended at 24,795.75, down by 218.85 points or 0.87% after trading in a range of 24,694.35 and 25,143.00. There were 10 stocks advancing against 40 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.42%, ITC up by 1.32%, Trent up by 1.31%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.29% and Infosys up by 0.84%. On the flip side, Adani Ports down by 4.14%, Bharat Electronics down by 3.55%, NTPC down by 3.48%, Coal India down by 3.37% and SBI down by 3.26% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading mostly in red; France’s CAC fell 0.39 points or 0.01% to 7,540.97 and Germany’s DAX was down by 56.64 points or 0.3% to 19,064.29. On the flip side, UK’s FTSE 100 was up by 20.66 points or 0.25% to 8,301.29. 

Asian markets settled higher on Monday tracking Wall Street gains last Friday as upbeat US jobs data raised optimism about the American economy, the world’s largest, even though the data dashed expectations of aggressive rate cuts in the coming months. Meanwhile, investors were awaiting inflation data and comments from US Federal Reserve officials for further cues on interest rate path. Japanese shares lead gains and the yen slumped against the dollar after Japan's top currency diplomat issued a warning against speculative moves on the foreign exchange market. Moreover, Hong Kong shares surged after top US banks Citi and Goldman Sachs joined peers Morgan Stanley and UBS in raising their targets for key China indices, while more Chinese stimulus measures are expected. Chinese market remained closed until Tuesday for the Golden Week holiday.