Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity markets went through weak trade during the day and ended with minor losses on last trading day of the week. Cautiousness occurred during the day ahead of key macroeconomic data, i.e. Inflation and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data. Besides, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India’s biggest IT services provider missed the street estimates in Q2FY25. As for broader indices, the BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index ended in green.

After making cautious start, markets turned volatile following overnight jump in crude oil prices. Oil prices jumped after two sessions of decline, boosted by a spike in fuel demand as Hurricane Milton slammed into Florida, with Middle East supply risks and signs that demand from the US and China could increase also providing support. Traders overlooked the report that the World Bank retained India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for FY25 at 7% propelled by higher agricultural production and robust employment growth from policy initiatives, spurring private consumption. Also, the World Bank in its South Asia Development Update said India's manufacturing output would increase by 9 per cent if more women joined the workforce. In afternoon session, markets added more losses. Some concern came with a private report that India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, likely rose to 5.1% in September from 3.65% in August, primarily due to an unfavourable base effect. In September 2023, CPI inflation was at 5.02%. Sentiments were negative, amid a private report stating that Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged and change the policy stance to neutral indicates that inflation is still the main concern for the central bank. In late afternoon session, indices continued their rangebound trade, as traders avoided to take risk.

On the global front, European markets were trading lower as nervous investors awaited updates on China's stimulus plans. Asian markets ended mixed after Malaysia's industrial output growth moderated for the first time in three months in August. The figures from the Department of Statistics showed that industrial production climbed 4.1 percent yearly in August, slower than the 5.3 percent surge in the previous month. Back home, World Trade Organisation (WTO) has slightly raised its outlook for global goods trade for the year 2024, but cautioned that increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over economy policy pose ‘substantial’ risks to its forecast.

The BSE Sensex ended at 81,381.36, down by 230.05 points or 0.28% after trading in a range of 81,304.15 and 81,671.38. There were 16 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index, while 1 stock remained unchanged. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index gained 0.44%, while Small cap index was up by 0.44%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 1.25%, Healthcare up by 0.85%, Oil & Gas up by 0.64%, IT up by 0.59% and Consumer Durables was up by 0.50%, while Realty down by 0.74%, Utilities down by 0.68%, Bankex down by 0.61%, Auto down by 0.45% and Power was down by 0.38% were the losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were HCL Tech up by 1.70%, Tech Mahindra up by 1.42%, JSW Steel up by 1.02%, Hindustan Unilever up by 0.94% and Larsen & Toubro up by 0.90%. On the flip side, TCS down by 1.93%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.83%, ICICI Bank down by 1.56%, Power Grid down by 1.18% and Maruti Suzuki down by 1.13% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, citing the growth of agriculture output and policies as a major factor contributing to the employment growth in the economy, the World Bank in its South Asia’s Growth forecast report has raised India’s economic growth forecast from 6.6 per cent to 7 per cent for the financial year 2024-25.

As per the report, in India, better-than-expected manufacturing performance in the first quarter of 2024 was supported by declining input costs as global oil prices moderated. Growth normalized to 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2024 and reflected a strong recovery in private consumption and resilient services exports. Robust growth is likely to have continued into the third quarter of 2024. In July, India’s composite PMI stood at 61.4, well above both its long-term trend and the global average-with strong performance in both manufacturing and services.

It said South Asia remains the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy region in the world. In fact, growth is now on track to be higher than anticipated six months ago, helped by strong domestic demand in India and faster recoveries in most other South Asian countries. It further said global investors are seeking locations with low geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals, and the region, especially India, is well-placed to benefit.

The CNX Nifty ended at 24,964.25, down by 34.20 points or 0.14% after trading in a range of 24,920.05 and 25,028.65. There were 30 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Trent up by 2.57%, Hindalco up by 2.36%, HCL Tech up by 1.71%, Tech Mahindra up by 1.69% and ONGC up by 1.32%. On the flip side, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.88%, TCS down by 1.85%, ICICI Bank down by 1.65%, Cipla down by 1.43% and Maruti Suzuki down by 1.29% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading lower; UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 22.08 points or 0.27% to 8,215.65, France’s CAC fell 5.29 points or 0.07% to 7,536.30 and Germany’s DAX was down by 9.69 points or 0.05% to 19,201.21.

Asian markets ended mixed on Friday as slightly stickier US inflation for September and fresh signs of labor market weakness spurred hopes for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, while investors are awaiting to see whether China will deliver more fiscal stimulus plans at a press conference by the finance ministry on Saturday. Japanese shares gained due to hopes for solid earnings from Japanese firms after heavyweight Fast Retailing reported upbeat results the previous day, but investors are turned cautious as the earnings season kicked into high gear. Meanwhile Seoul shares declined marginally despite the Bank of Korea's (BOK) first interest rate cut in more than three years. Hong Kong markets shut on account of the Chung Yeung festival.