Sensex, Nifty end volatile session on lower note

Indian equity benchmarks experienced volatility and ended marginally lower on Monday dragged by a decline in Oil & Gas, Industrials and Realty stocks. Markets made an optimistic start as traders took support with the retirement fund body, Employees' Provident Fund Organisation’s (EPFO) latest ‘Provisional payroll data’ report showing that 18.53 lakh net members have been added in the month of August 2024, a 9.07% year-on-year growth compared to August 2023, signifying increased employment opportunities and heightened awareness of employee benefits, bolstered by EPFO’s effective outreach initiatives. However, markets soon erased their gains and remained lackluster throughout the day, as traders turned cautious with data shared by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showing that India's foreign exchange reserves have experienced a notable decline for the second consecutive week, dipping by $10.7 billion to stand at $690 billion as of October 11. Some anxiety also came as the NCAER-NSE Business Expectations Survey showed that economic activity continued to show dynamism in the second quarter of 2024-25, though at a moderated pace.

Sentiments remained lackluster in late afternoon deals, as a report by National Stock Exchange highlighted that the revenue disparity among Indian states continues to be significant, while some states have shown revenue growth in FY25 but others have reported a revenue contraction. Traders took a note of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das’ statement that interest rate cut this stage would have been premature and very very risky as the retail inflation is still high, and future monetary policy action would depend upon the income data and outlook. He said the September inflation was high and the next print too is expected to remain elevated before moderating. Meanwhile, a group of ministers (GoM), tasked by the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council to look at rate rationalisation, has suggested changes in rates of multiple goods, as well as moving of shoes and watches priced above a certain threshold to the 28% tax bracket, from 18% now. A separate group - looking into taxation of insurance products - has favoured exempting health insurance products for senior citizens and reducing tax to 5%, from 18% now, on products providing health cover up to Rs 5 lakh, sans any input tax credit.

On the global front, European markets were trading lower even as higher commodity prices boosted mining and energy stocks. ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus said rates could get lower than the natural level between 2 percent and 3 percent, if a fall in inflation becomes entrenched. Asian markets settled mixed on Monday as China's central bank once again cut interest rates and the country's banks slashed borrowing costs to combat the country's stubborn economic slump. 

Back home, on the sectoral front, auto stocks were in watch with report that automobile exports from India in the first six months of the current fiscal year rose 14 per cent year-on-year, led by gains in shipments of passenger vehicles and two-wheelers. According to Siam data, the overall exports in the April-September period stood at 25,28,248 units, up 14 per cent as compared with 22,11,457 units in the year-ago period. There were some reactions in telecom stocks as the DoT's apex decision-making body Digital Communication Commission Member Manish Sinha said telecom sector revenue may cross Rs 5 trillion in the next two years in line with the present growth trend fuelled by ease of doing business measures introduced by the government in the last 2-3 years.

Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 73.48 points or 0.09% to 81,151.27, and the CNX Nifty was down by 72.95 points or 0.29% to 24,781.10. 

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 81,770.02 and 80,811.23 respectively. There were 9 stocks advancing against 21 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index fell 1.63%, while Small cap index was down by 1.51%.

The lone gaining sectoral index on the BSE was Auto up by 0.27%, while Oil & Gas down by 1.68%, Industrials down by 1.65%, Realty down by 1.52%, Metal down by 1.44% and Power down by 1.42% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were HDFC Bank up by 2.83%, Asian Paints up by 1.58%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 0.91%, Tech Mahindra up by 0.78% and Reliance Industries up by 0.76%. On the flip side, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 4.29%, Bajaj Finserv down by 3.05%, Indusind Bank down by 2.86%, Adani Ports &SEZ down by 2.15% and Ultratech Cement down by 1.93% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) in its data has showed said that automobile exports from India in the first six months of the current fiscal year (FY25) rose 14 per cent year-on-year, led by gains in shipments of passenger vehicles and two-wheelers. According to it, the overall exports in the April-September period stood at 25,28,248 units, up 14 per cent as compared with 22,11,457 units in the year-ago period.

Total passenger vehicle shipments rose 12 per cent year-on-year to 3,76,679 units in the first half of the current fiscal year as against 3,36,754 units in same period of FY24. Commercial vehicle exports rose 12 per cent year-on-year to 35,731 units in the first six months of the fiscal year.  Two-wheeler exports rose 16 per cent year-on-year to 19,59,145 units in the April-September period this fiscal year as compared with 16,85,907 units in the year-ago period. Scooter shipments increased 19 per cent to 3,14,533 units while motorcycle exports rose 16 per cent to 16,41,804 units during the period under review

However, three-wheeler shipments declined 1 per cent during the period to 1,53,199 units as compared with 1,55,154 units in the April-September period of the 2023-24 fiscal year. Siam President Shailesh Chandra said ‘Key markets like Latin America and Africa, which had slowed down for various reasons, have bounced back. This has been the main reason for exports coming back.’

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 24,978.30 and 24,679.60. There were 12 stocks advancing against 37 stocks declining, while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index. 

The top gainers on Nifty were Bajaj Auto up by 4.34%, HDFC Bank up by 2.57%, Asian Paints up by 1.70%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.17% and Eicher Motors up by 0.68%. On the flip side, Tata Consumer Product down by 7.08%, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 4.73%, Bajaj Finserv down by 3.37%, BPCL down by 3.36% and Indusind Bank down by 3.03% were the top losers.

European markets were trading lower; UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 15.22 points or 0.18% to 8,343.03, France’s CAC fell 59.53 points or 0.78% to 7,553.52 and Germany’s DAX lost 149.66 points or 0.76% to 19,507.71.

Asian markets settled mixed on Monday due to concerns over heightened tensions in the Middle East and Europe and uncertainty over the US presidential election. Japanese shares weakened marginally even after another winning close on Wall Street. Investors are awaiting Japan’s general election at the end of this week. Meanwhile, Chinese shares rose as Chinese banks cut their benchmark lending rates after easing by the central bank at the end of September, part of a series of stimulus measures aimed at reviving economic growth and halting a housing market slump. The one-year loan prime rate was lowered to 3.10% from 3.35%, while the five-year LPR was reduced to 3.60% from 3.85%.