Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity markets witnessed volatility during the day and ended with losses on Monday. Traders were cautious ahead of Maharashtra assembly election. Globally, traders reacted to the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent somewhat hawkish comments, suggesting the Fed can take a careful approach to future monetary policy decisions and doesn't need to hurry to lower rates. As for broader indices, the BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index also ended in red.

After making positive start, soon markets entered into negative territory and extended their losses amid sustain foreign fund outflows dented sentiments. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,849.87 crore on November 14. Some cautiousness came as Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the central bank has ensured a soft landing after having faced with various headwinds, but risks of inflation coming back and growth slowing down do remain. Besides, India’s foreign exchange reserves declined for the sixth straight week, mainly due to the Reserve Bank of India’s intervention in the foreign exchange market as the rupee came under pressure from sustained foreign investment outflows. In afternoon session, indices come off from day’s low levels but continued to trade below neutral lines. Some anxiety persisted among traders, amid reports that overseas investors are cutting their holdings of Indian bonds at the fastest pace since at least June, as rising US yields damp the appeal of the Asian nation’s fixed-income securities. Markets remained in red till the end of the session. 

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in red as investors awaited speeches from European Central Bank policymakers including chief Christine Lagarde later in the day for new hints about whether the central bank will cut interest rates again when it meets in December. Asian markets ended mostly in red due to renewed concerns over Trump's potential tariffs and uncertainty over Fed's policy. Back home, Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) in its report, citing government data, has said that textiles exports from India during October were about 11.56 per cent higher at $1,833.95 million, compared to the same month last year.

The BSE Sensex ended at 77,339.01, down by 241.30 points or 0.31% after trading in a range of 76,965.06 and 77,886.97. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index declined 0.17%, while Small cap index was down by 0.69%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 2.14%, FMCG up by 0.66%, Realty up by 0.62%, Auto up by 0.58% and Consumer Durables was up by 0.29%, while IT down by 2.34%, TECK down by 1.99%, Oil & Gas down by 1.64%, Energy down by 1.21% and Utilities was down by 1.04% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel up by 2.39%, Hindustan Unilever up by 1.44%, Nestle up by 1.37%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.37% and SBI up by 1.20%. On the flip side, TCS down by 3.05%, Infosys down by 2.82%, NTPC down by 1.56%, HCL Tech down by 1.43% and Axis Bank down by 1.36% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, expressing optimism over India’s growth prospects, Moody's Ratings has said that Indian economy is in a sweet spot, with a mix of solid growth and moderating inflation, and forecasted a 7.2 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the 2024 calendar year followed by 6.6 per cent in 2025 and 6.5 per cent in 2026. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the rating agency said the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, an energy and food crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war began, high inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening. 

It said ‘Most G-20 economies will experience steady growth and continue to benefit from policy easing and supportive commodity prices’. However, post-election changes in US domestic and international policies could potentially accelerate global economic fragmentation, complicating ongoing stabilisation. The aggregate and net effects of trade, fiscal, immigration and regulatory policy changes will expand the range of outcomes for countries and sectors.

On India, it said the real GDP expanded 6.7 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter (April-June) of 2024, driven by a revival in household consumption, robust investment and strong manufacturing activity. High-frequency indicators including expanding manufacturing and services PMIs, robust credit growth and consumer optimism - signal steady economic momentum in Q3. It said household consumption in India is poised to grow, fuelled by increased spending during the ongoing festive season and a sustained pickup in rural demand on the back of an improved agricultural outlook. Additionally, rising capacity utilisation, upbeat business sentiment and the government's continued thrust on infrastructure spending should support private investment.

It further said ‘Sound economic fundamentals, including healthy corporate and bank balance sheets, a stronger external position, and ample foreign exchange reserves also bode well for the growth outlook’. Sporadic food price pressures continue to inject volatility in the disinflation trajectory. Headline inflation breached the upper end of the RBI's 4 per cent (+/-2 per cent) tolerance band for the first time in more than a year in October, accelerating to 6.2 per cent amid a sharp jump in vegetable prices. It said ‘Despite the near-term uptick, inflation should moderate toward the RBI's target in the coming months as food prices ease amid higher sowing and adequate food grain buffer stocks’.

The CNX Nifty ended at 23,453.80, down by 78.90 points or 0.34% after trading in a range of 23,350.40 and 23,606.80. There were 21 stocks advancing against 29 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Hindalco up by 3.78%, Hero MotoCorp up by 2.80%, Tata Steel up by 2.34%, Hindustan Unilever up by 1.41% and Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.41%. On the flip side, TCS down by 3.05%, BPCL down by 3.02%, Infosys down by 2.85%, Dr. Reddy's Lab down by 2.70% and Trent down by 2.50% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading mostly in red; France’s CAC fell 11.03 points or 0.15% to 7,258.60 and Germany’s DAX was down by 37.09 points or 0.19% to 19,173.72. On the flip side, UK’s FTSE 100 increased 16.08 points or 0.2% to 8,079.69.

Asian markets settled mostly down on Monday tracking Wall Street’s fall last Friday as recent economic data on inflation and retail sales coupled with comments from Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell weakened the case for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, renewed concerns over Donald Trump's potential tariffs and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine have also pressurized market sentiments. Japanese shares dropped as the Japanese yen initially regained some strength and after Bank of Japan chief Kazuo Ueda failed to offer strong hints on the timing of additional interest rate hikes. However, Hong Kong shares gained after Chinese securities regulator said it will expand the scope of stock eligible to trade via Stock Connect.