Key gauges end lower amid renewed global uncertainties

Indian equity benchmarks ended over half percent lower on Thursday amid a sharp fall in Adani group stocks after billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani was charged in the US for alleged bribery and fraud. Besides, the domestic markets faced renewed pressure due to escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened nuclear concerns. Markets made a cautious start and soon extended fall, as traders got anxious with exchange data showing that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 3,411.73 crore on Tuesday. Traders were concerned as domestic rating agency Icra said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. Some cautiousness came as Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said India’s economic growth may have slowed in the September quarter, but overall, there is not much downside risk to 6.5-7 per cent growth in the current fiscal year.

Markets continued to reel under pressure in late afternoon session as sentiments remained downbeat with the Reserve Bank of India's state of the economy report stated that the rise in headline inflation can damage the real economy if not checked, even as the festive consumption demand and farm sector recovery have helped the Indian economy to overcome a lull seen in the second quarter and put it back on track. Traders paid no heed towards the retirement fund body, Employees' Provident Fund Organisation’s (EPFO) latest ‘Provisional payroll data’ report showing that 18.81 lakh net members have been added in the month of September 2024, a 9.33% year-on-year growth as compared to September 2023, signifying increased employment opportunities and heightened awareness of employee benefits, bolstered by EPFO’s effective outreach initiatives. Traders also overlooked a report by think tank GTRI stating that India is set for a major change in its export trends, with outbound shipments of the services sectors expected to overtake merchandise exports by 2030 and touch $618 billion.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly lower on Thursday, while European markets were trading mostly in red as traders remained cautious and were reluctant to make more significant moves as they kept an eye on the escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The People's Bank of China holding rates steady and the uncertainty about the US Fed's interest rate moves also rendered the mood cautious. Back home, on the sectoral front, paper industry stocks were in limelight as Indian Paper Manufacturers Association (IPMA) said paper and paperboard imports rose by 3.5 per cent to 992,000 tonnes in the April-September period of 2024-25, driven by a sharp rise in shipments from China. There was some reaction in insurance industry stocks with a private report that India’s insurance sector is set to witness remarkable growth, with its Assets Under Management (AUM) projected to surge to $11 trillion by 2047 from $0.7 trillion in 2023.  

Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 422.59 points or 0.54% to 77,155.79, and the CNX Nifty was down by 168.60 points or 0.72% to 23,349.90.   

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 77,711.11 and 76,802.73 respectively. There were 10 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index fell 0.37%, while Small cap index was down by 0.67%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 1.07%, IT up by 0.36%, TECK up by 0.32% and Healthcare up by 0.11%, while Utilities down by 3.16%, PSU down by 1.57%, Basic Materials down by 1.55%, Oil & Gas down by 1.45% and Energy down by 1.44% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Power Grid Corporation up by 3.41%, Ultratech Cement up by 1.41%, HCL Technologies up by 0.87%, Tata Steel up by 0.57% and TCS up by 0.49%. On the flip side, Adani Ports & SEZ down by 13.53%, NTPC down by 2.73%, SBI down by 2.64%, ITC down by 2.18% and Asian Paints down by 2.17% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, domestic rating agency Icra has said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance.

However, the agency maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal. The estimates and commentary on the outlook come at a time when there are concerns around the growth slowdown on a slew of factors like slowing down urban demand.

The RBI is sticking to its estimate of 7.2 per cent growth for the fiscal, but a majority of watchers expect it to be under the 7 per cent figure and many have been revising down in the last few weeks. Official data for the Q2 economic activity is expected to be published on November 30. In Q1, the GDP expansion had come at 6.7 per cent.

Icra's chief economist Aditi Nayar said ‘Q2 FY25 saw tailwinds in terms of a pick-up in capex after the Parliamentary Elections as well as healthy expansion in sowing of major kharif crops. Several sectors faced headwinds on account of heavy rainfall, which affected mining activity, electricity demand and retail footfalls, and a contraction in merchandise exports.

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 23,507.30 and 23,263.15. There were 13 stocks advancing against 37 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Power Grid Corporation up by 3.25%, Ultratech Cement up by 1.70%, Hindalco up by 1.20%, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise up by 0.88% and Grasim Industries up by 0.88%. On the flip side, Adani Enterprises down by 23.44%, Adani Ports & SEZ down by 13.23%, SBI Life Insurance down by 3.15%, SBI down by 2.75% and NTPC down by 2.51% were the top losers.

European markets were trading mostly in red; France’s CAC fell 35.02 points or 0.49% to 7,163.43 and Germany’s DAX lost 26.68 points or 0.14% to 18,978.10, while UK’s FTSE 100 increased 11.4 points or 0.14% to 8,096.47.

Asian markets ended mostly lower on Thursday as lackluster revenue forecast from AI darling Nvidia, disappointed investors. Nvidia, the world’s most valuable firm, projected its slowest revenue growth in seven quarters. Prevailing geopolitical concerns following the escalating conflict in Ukraine earlier this week have also weighed on risk sentiment, leading safe-haven assets higher, including gold and government bonds. Markets in China and Hong Kong saw a downturn as investors grappled with the dual prospects of U.S. tariff hikes and anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from Beijing.