Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has said that India's second quarter GDP growth at 5.4 per cent is disappointing but maintained that overall growth projection for FY25 at 6.5 per cent is ‘not in danger’. The Economic Survey projected India's GDP to grow at 6.5-7 per cent in 2024-25, down from a high of 8.2 per cent in the preceding financial year. He said agriculture and allied sector and construction sector are some of the bright spot, and added that record production estimates for kharif foodgrains as well as promising rabi crop prospects augur well for farm income and rural demand.
On the basis of second quarter number, he said it cannot be said that 6.5 per cent number is in danger as the low second quarter number is not a trend. He exuded confidence that economy shows resilience underpinned by steady demand and strong manufacturing and service sector activity. Talking about other bright spot, he said, labour market shows signs of growth, with an easing unemployment rate and expanding formal workforce, with notable increases in manufacturing jobs and a strong inflow of youth into organised sectors. He also said better growth in labour incomes holds the key to sustained demand growth and capital formation in the private sector, and added that global crude oil prices remaining low, bodes well for economic activity and price stability.
With regard to challenges, Nageswaran said geopolitical conditions remain fragile and may continue to impact domestic inflation, supply chains and capital flows. He said elevated asset prices globally is a risk factor, and added that exports face greater uncertainties due to potential policy development elsewhere and an uncertain outlook for monetary policy and economic growth in advanced economies. He further said limits to states' capacity on capex, capital-intensive growth in private corporate sector and the regulatory environment are medium- to long-term risk factors for economic growth.