Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) its new economic outlook has projected that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to be steady at just under 7% per year over 2024-2026, led by fixed investment, notably in manufacturing, amid rapid increases in public infrastructure spending. It also said GDP is expected to grow by 6.8% in fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. Strong investment is the main driver of this robust performance, with accelerating public infrastructure outlays. Vigorous credit growth is supporting private investment. Farm output is recovering as an above-normal monsoon is lifting rural incomes, and will soon ease food prices and inflation. Export growth is projected to pick up slightly, but could be weaker, given ongoing global tensions.
Annual private consumption growth also is projected to remain strong at around 6%, so long as inflation eases. However, external demand will provide less support in the future, as past gains in both export performance and the terms of trade diminish. Inflation is expected to drop back to the 4% official target by 2026. The current account will remain in a small and easily financeable deficit.
The main macroeconomic risks come from abroad, notably a weaker economic environment and higher commodity import prices, associated with a worsening global geopolitical environment or greater protectionism. Competitiveness losses from comparatively less favourable tariff treatment in export markets could also prove more harmful. Domestically, financial risks associated with small retail investor exuberance and booming derivatives trading have increased. On the other hand, India’s strong position in technology services or greater utilisation of potential female labour resources could underpin even faster growth than projected.