Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity markets throughout the day witnessed volatility and ended flat for yet another day. Traders were cautious ahead of key inflation data from the U.S. later in the day and the domestic CPI print on December 12, expected to provide cues on the rate trajectories for both economies. As broader indices, the BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index ended in green. 

Markets made slightly positive start and turned volatile amid weakness on Wall Street overnight as well as mixed cues from Asian counterparts. However, markets gained traction to trade higher, as some support came after S&P Global Ratings in its latest India Outlook said the Indian economy is set for resilient growth in 2025 on the back of strong urban consumption, steady services sector growth, and ongoing investment in infrastructure. The global ratings agency kept the FY25 gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook unchanged at 6.8 per cent amid slower fiscal impulse tempering urban demand. Further, indices came off from day’s high levels but remained in green in afternoon session. Traders got some relief amid a private report stating that the government is likely to project a conservative nominal GDP growth estimate of around 9.5 percent for the 2025-26 budget, factoring in expectations of slowing inflation and steady economic activity. The fresh estimate follows recent data indicating slower growth, with real GDP expanding by just 5.4 percent in the second quarter of FY25. In late afternoon session, markets remained volatile and ended flat as traders preferred to play safe.

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in green as investors awaited U.S. inflation data. Asian markets ended mixed as traders were keeping tabs on Beijing hoping for more economic support measures. Back home, a private report stated that Asian Development Bank has lowered India’s growth forecast for this fiscal to 6.5 percent from 7 percent it had projected earlier after the economy slowed down in the second quarter.

The BSE Sensex ended at 81,526.14, up by 16.09 points or 0.02% after trading in a range of 81,383.42 and 81,742.37. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.25%, while Small cap index up by 0.35%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 0.59%, Industrials up by 0.40%, Auto up by 0.37%, TECK up by 0.35% and IT was up by 0.35%, while Utilities down by 0.35%, Power down by 0.34%, Bankex down by 0.31% and PSU was down by 0.09% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Bajaj Finance up by 2.61%, Bajaj Finserv up by 1.20%, Nestle up by 1.20%, Asian Paints up by 1.17% and Ultratech Cement up by 1.04%. On the flip side, JSW Steel down by 1.42%, Adani Ports down by 1.25%, NTPC down by 0.88%, SBI down by 0.70% and Reliance Industries down by 0.53% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings in its India outlook for 2025 has said the Indian economy is set for ‘resilient growth’ in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to ‘modest’ easing of the monetary policy by the RBI. S&P also retained India's growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26. It said ‘The Indian economy is set for resilient growth in 2025 on the back of strong urban consumption, steady service sector growth and ongoing investment in infrastructure’.

The agency said ‘we expect the central bank to ease monetary policy modestly during 2025 as inflationary pressures recede’. Last week, RBI retained benchmark interest rates at 6.5 per cent to control inflation but cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to infuse liquidity into the system. India's economy grew 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. It said the GDP growth print for fiscal Q2 (June-September 2024) was weaker than expected at 5.4 per cent.

It said the fiscal impulse was slower, and pockets of weakness such as the urban middle class held back. Manufacturing growth which puts some downside risk to its forecast of 6.8 per cent growth for fiscal 2025. There are various challenges for the economy, including post-pandemic weakness in the public sector and household balance sheets, a highly competitive global manufacturing environment and weak agriculture sector growth. It noted creating enough jobs for India's higher labour force participation, further infrastructure and technology improvement, and stronger public and household balance sheets can support economic growth.

The CNX Nifty ended at 24,641.80, up by 31.75 points or 0.13% after trading in a range of 24,583.85 and 24,691.75. There were 26 stocks advancing against 23 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Trent up by 2.69%, Bajaj Finance up by 2.58%, Britannia up by 2.14%, Shriram Finance up by 1.94% and Bajaj Finserv up by 1.39%. On the flip side, JSW Steel down by 1.26%, Adani Ports down by 1.20%, NTPC down by 0.99%, SBI down by 0.68% and Axis Bank down by 0.55% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading mostly in green; France’s CAC rose 5.05 points or 0.07% to 7,399.83 and Germany’s DAX was up by 9.2 points or 0.05% to 20,338.36. On the flip side, UK’s FTSE 100 was down by 9.97 points or 0.12% to 8,270.39.

Asian markets settled mixed on Wednesday ahead of key US CPI data due later in the day that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week, while investors also awaiting China's two-day Central Economic Work Conference that is expected to map out policies for next year. Seoul shares rose after data showed South Korea added more than 120,000 jobs in November, a slight uptick from the previous month. Chinese shares gained in anticipation of more government cues on stimulus measures, while President Xi Jinping said that China is fully confident in achieving its economic growth target this year. Meanwhile, Japanese shares ended flat with uncertainty over how soon the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates, while the Japanese yen recovered from a recent slump after data showed inflation in Japan's corporate goods prices accelerated to the fastest pace in 16 months.