Economic Package Part 2: Quick Takeaways

Hon. Finance Minister announced a series of liquidity measures under Part 2 of Economic Package on 13th May 2020. 

The key highlights of Part 2 package are in bold, followed by our opinion:

Upto Rs. 3 Lakh Crore for MSME with Credit Guarantee from Government.

The current outstanding amount of MSME loans is around Rs. 18 Lakh Crore. Other loans against assets excluded. Additional line of Rs. 3 Lakh Crore's unsecured loans can help the companies restart their business. 45 lakh MSME eligible for this loan facility. These firms employ close to 12 Crore people.

Additional Rs. 20,000 Cr for stressed MSME

Around 2 Lakh MSME are under stress meaning they are either overleveraged or they have delayed interest payments/NPA. This provides relief to banks and NBFC that may have high NPA due to SME.

Liquidity for NBFC

Special liquidity of Rs. 30,000 Cr to NBFC/HFC to all investment-grade paper with a government guarantee. Additionally, another Rs. 45,000 Cr to all NBFC with a partial guarantee by the government up to 20%. Many banking experts believe this could be inadequate. 

Many NBFCs lend to last-mile borrowers either in non-traditional segments or remote areas or low rated borrowers. NBFC didn’t have funds to lend, which led to a collapse in demand for end borrowers. Banks were reluctant to lend because of risks in NBFC. Since the government is now offering liquidity and partial guarantee, funds will flow to reasonably good NBFC and hence the end borrower.

Liquidity for Discom with state’s guarantee to borrower

Discoms have Rs. 90,000 Cr in dues towards generation and transmission companies. Relief for generation companies to carry on their business. Many industry experts believe there needs to be reform in the power sector instead of the current stopgap arrangement.

25% cut in TDS, TCS

TDS and TCS cut of 25% on payments for contracts, professional fees, interest, rent, dividend, commission, and brokerage. This provides liquidity to businesses, individuals, and investors. The total expected liquidity in hand will be approx. Rs. 50,000 Cr. 

Current measures are mostly liquidity measures and may have temporary relief to restart a business. However, more reforms/stimulus is needed to fix the demand side of the economy which got affected due to i) job losses/salary cuts ii) reluctance to purchases from poor sentiment. 

Many of these measures may not have desired implications unless we start seeing economic activity reinstated. Our interpretation of potential benefits is based on the fact that the economy will be reopened in a reasonable time. 

We will be hearing series announcements in the coming days. We will be sharing quick takeaways with our interpretation.